Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 400 (N05W37)
produced two C-class flares, a C1.0 at 08/2135Z, and a C2.4/Sf at
09/1446Z. Region 397 (N14W76) produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C5.8/Sf at 09/1637Z. No significant change was
observed in any active region except for Region 402, which grew in
magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with isolated chance of M-class flares from Regions 397, 400, or
402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active to minor
storm conditions possible on days two and three due to elevated
solar wind speeds as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 126 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 135/135/125 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 010/010-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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