Viewing archive of Friday, 1 August 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/1448Z from Region 2130 (S07E27). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 01/2044Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1415Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1650Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 168 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 008/010-013/014-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 30% |
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