Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 July 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 09/0318Z from Region 2665 (S06E24). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 09/2100Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/1338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 09/0831Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jul 091
  Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 092/092/092
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  022/029
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  015/018-011/012-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm55%40%50%

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