Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 July 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 09/2047Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 08/2215Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
09/1846Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (10 Jul) and quiet levels on days
two and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 068 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 15% |
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