G3 geomagnetic storm watch

понедельник, 29 июля 2024 16:12 UTC

Sure, solar flares are all nice and dandy but not very useful if there aren't any earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Well, here we are just in time to drop some good news! There have been three confirmed earth-directed coronal mass ejections as far as we could see right now based on the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph images.

The first coronal mass ejection that is expected to arrive at Earth is a full halo CME which launched around 2 UTC yesterday, 28 July. The second event with an earth-directed component comes from a long duration M-class event and is first visible on SOHO/LASCO around 15 UTC on July 28. Last up we have a faint partial halo coronal mass ejection from the X1.5 solar flare which peaked at 02:37 UTC today but it is rather unimpressive compared to the first two coronal mass ejections we mentioned so we do not expect this to become a noticeably impact in the wake of the two earlier mentioned CMEs.

All in all quite a challenge to analyze these events but the consensus is that the first two coronal mass ejections will likely arrive as one late tomorrow (30 July). Strong G3 geomagnetic storm conditions (Kp7) are expected which means with a bit of luck aurora might become visible from locations like England, northern Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. In the USA, aurora might become visible from locations as far south as Salt Lake City in Utah or Richmond, VA. Charge those camera batteries, another great opportunity for middle latitude sky watchers!