Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2025 Apr 12 1230 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity reached high levels due to frequent low-level R1 (Minor) events from Region 4055 (N04W58, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The largest event was an M2.7 flare at 12/1143 UTC. The region continued a significant growth phase, developing both in penumbral area and new spot emergence. Slight growth was also observed in Region 4058 (N13W58, Dai/beta). Only minor changes were observed in the remaining numbered active regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Прогноз

Solar activity is likely to reach M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), on 12-14 Apr due primarily to the flare potential from Region 4055.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit was at high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Прогноз

The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 13 Apr before returning to mostly moderate levels by 14 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels for the next three days.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 7-11 nT, the Bz component continued to fluctuate between -9 and +7 nT, and solar wind speeds were predominantly between 400-500 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Прогноз

The solar wind environment is expected to continue under CH HSS influence through 14 Apr as the large, negative polarity CH HSS from the Suns southern hemisphere becomes geoeffective.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to continuing CH HSS effects.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely, on 12 Apr due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue into 13-14 Apr, with a slight chance for isolated G1 (Minor) periods on 13 Apr, as CH effects wane.