Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2024 Sep 17 1230 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a 9.6 at 16/2357 UTC from Region 3825 (S16E20, Eai/beta-gamma). Slight decay and separation was observed in Region 3824 (S04W40, Csi/beta-gamma). Slight growth occurred in the leading spots of Region 3825. New Region 3828 (S13E75, Hhx/alpha) rotated onto the SE limb and was numbered. Two new spotted regions emerged in the NW quadrant. We await further observations before designating a region number. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Прогноз

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 17 Sep. Probabilities are decreasing to a chance for M-class flares on 18-19 Sep as Regions 3814 and 3822 rotate around the NW limb.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2,240 pfu at 16/1215 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels reached the S1 (Minor) threshold at 17/0735 UTC.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to moderate levels on 17-19 Sep due to CME influence. There is a slight chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) levels on 17-19 Sep.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

Solar wind parameters were indicative of CME influences. At 16/2249, the total magnetic field increased from 9-16 nT, reaching a peak of 20 nT, while Bz turned mostly southward reaching -18 nT. Solar wind speeds also increased at that time, from approximately 440 km/s to ~580-600 km/s. This activity indicated the shock arrival from the 13-14 Sep CMEs.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are likely to remain under the influence of the 13 and 14 Sep CMEs on 17 Sep. Conditions are expected to subside by 18 Sep.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

The geomagnetic field reached G4 (Severe) storm levels due to the arrival of the 14 Sep CME.

Прогноз

G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the remainder of 17 Sep, with continuing CME influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 18-19 Sep as CME effects diminish.