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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Feb 11 1241 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Feb 2015	138	007
12 Feb 2015	135	019
13 Feb 2015	132	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was quiet. There were several small C-class flares in the past 24 hours, largely from AR 2282 located in the Eastern hemisphere (E43). AR 2282 produced the largest flare, a C1.5 class flare on February 10, 2015 near 14:06 UTC. Previously active NOAA AR 2277 has moved onto the Western hemisphere limb. NOAA ARs 2280 and 2281 appear stable. All ARs are largelly stable with small amounts of flux emergence. There is a large filament located between S50E20 and S10W50, however this has remained stable. Flaring is expected to continue at the C-class level with the possibility of an M-class flare. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed has been roughly constant with small fluctuations around 400 km/s. The total magnetic field has been stable around 6 nT, however the Bz component has been variable, ranging between +5 and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K Dourbes 1-2). Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist and possibly enhanced in 12-24 hours if the CME/shock front produced at 23:24 UT on 2015-Feb-09 interacts with the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 044, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Feb 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	074
10cm sluneční tok	141
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	059 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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