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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Apr 12 1242 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Apr 2025	172	015
13 Apr 2025	176	014
14 Apr 2025	178	011

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity reached high levels over the past 24 hours with registered six M-class flares. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest and most complex active region on the visible solar disc, which produced most of the observed flaring activity is SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4055) currently located at N08W54. The region has a magnetic type classification beta-gamma-delta and has produced all six M-class flares. The largest activity was an M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 4097) with peak time at 11:17 UTC on April 12. SIDC Sunspot Group 470 (NOAA Active Region 4058), SIDC Sunspot Group 450 (NOAA Active Region 4060) and SIDC Sunspot Group 440 (NOAA Active Region 4061) have exhibited some growth, all currently classified as magnetic type beta. The remaining regions are simple and have been quiet. The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at moderate and possibly high levels with very likely further M-class flaring and 20% chances for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A very small and compact equatorial positive polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian over the past 24 hours. Another compact mid-latitude positive polarity coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian. Any possible weak connections to the high speed streams emanating from these coronal holes which might be observed at Earth on April 15.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected waning connection to a high speed stream. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (B) reached a maximum value of 10 nT with a minimum Bz of -9 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 375 km/s and 530 km/s. The B field phi angle was entirely in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain mildly enhanced over the next 24 hours under the waning influence of a high speed stream.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to active with quiet to unsettled conditions registered locally over Belgium. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three days.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days with possible enhancements in the upcoming days related to the increased levels of flaring activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4055).

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 18 electron fluxes has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to briefly exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 111, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Apr 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	148
10cm sluneční tok	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	017
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	126 - Na základě 36 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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