SpaceWeatherLive .com
Real-time auroral and solar activity

Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 January 2015

Solar activity report

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 03/0947Z from Region 2253 (S07E09). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 548 km/s at 03/0706Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/0000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/2355Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jan 149
  Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        03 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jan  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  011/015-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%40%25%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

Back to top

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi
Kirkenes, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (508.2 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.5nT), the direction is slightly South (-3.74nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-88nT)

Latest news

Latest forum messages

Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2198Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1659Filaments and prominences 750New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 35AR4048 112
More topics

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

21:03 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 21:49 UTC

13:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 13:07 UTC

alert

12:33 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 13:21 UTC

00:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:59 UTC

alert

Thursday, 3 April 2025
20:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 20:02 UTC

alert

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2025/04/01M2.5
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/27Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
March 2025134.2 -20.4
April 2025143 +8.8
Last 30 days130.4 -16.1

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002M8.82
21999M6.76
32001M2.91
42003M2.74
52001M2.31
DstG
11979-202G3
21988-133G3
31984-120G4
42004-117G2
51994-111G3
*since 1994

Social networks