Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 January 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/1536Z from Region 2253 (S07W04). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 473 km/s at 03/2245Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/1939Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1336Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (05 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (06 Jan, 07 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 150 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 013/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 013/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 012/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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