Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan,
17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 568 km/s at 14/0945Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/2020Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/1433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 9398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (16 Jan) and active to minor storm levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 127 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 130/132/128 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 008/008-006/005-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 75% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/14 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/11 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 93.1 -30.9 |
| Last 30 days | 97.4 -9.1 |