Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 23/1112Z from Region 3932 (S17E27). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 22/2252Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1632Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 23/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1540 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M65%65%65%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 238
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 230/230/230
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 202

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  015/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  008/010-018/025-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm10%30%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%65%40%

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