Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Dec 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 3932 (S17E27, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M8.9 flare (R2-Moderate) at 23/1112 UTC; the largest event of the period. Development continued among the cluster of active regions in the SE quadrant, with a few small delta spots emerging. A new spot region appeared near S11W38 but has not been numbered at the time of this writing. Model analysis of a large CME, associated with the M8.9 flare at 23/1112 UTC and visible in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 23/1124 UTC off the south, indicated a possible arrival at Earth during the later half of 25 Dec.

Forecast

M-class flare activity is likely (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3/Strong), over 23-25 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background but well below the S1 threshold, mostly due to activity that erupted on the far side of the Sun over 20 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the alert threshold at 23/1520 UTC, with a peak flux of 1540 pfu at 23/1725 UTC, and decreasing below the threshold at 23/1935 UTC.

Forecast

There remains a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 26 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were weakly enhanced this period. Total field reached a peak of 7 nT and Bz varied between +/- 6 nT Solar wind speeds ranged from 525-630 km/s, and the phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 24-26 Dec. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected over 24-25 Dec, and there is a chance to see the glancing influences of a CME (from 20 Dec) on 24 Dec and more direct influence from a CME (from 23 Dec) on 25 Dec.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.

Forecast

G1 (Minor) storming conditions are expected on 25 Dec, with a slight chance for isolated G2 (Moderate) periods, due to the arrival of a CME from 23 Dec. Waning influence may carry through 26 Dec where it could interact with a positive polarity coronal hole, producing largely unsettled conditions with isolated active periods. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled, with a chance for isolated active periods, on 24 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS influence plus additional enhancement from the glancing influences of a CME that left the Sun on 20 Dec.