Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Nov 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels following a long-duration M1.1 flare at 20/1948 UTC from Region 3897 (S12W90, Dao/beta) as it transited the west limb. This region also produced the majority of the C-class flare activity during the period. Region 3898 (S16W27, Cao/beta) exhibited slight decay early in the period, but then had some redevelopment later and managed to produced a C3.5 flare at 20/0632 UTC. Region 3901 (S07E35, Dao/beta-gamma) added a pair of low-level C-class flares, but remained mostly unchanged. The remaining regions were quiescent. New Region 3902 (S17E70, Cso/beta) was numbered. While several CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery, none were deemed Earth-directed.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events 21-23 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels on 21-23 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters reflected a weakly enhanced solar wind regime early, before transitioning to background levels the latter half of the period. Solar wind speeds ranged between 350 km/s - 400 km/s. Total field strength averaged near 10nT, reached a peak of 13 nT, then decreased to remain near 5-8 nT the last half of the period. The Bz component fluctuated between +9/-10 nT before turning mostly north, and the phi angle was predominantly in a positive orientation.

Forecast

Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become elevated on 22-23 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 21 Nov, becoming quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active period, on 22-23 Nov, due to anticipated CH HSS effects.