Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Apr 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at high levels due to frequent low-level R1 (Minor) events. Region 4055 (N04W64, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) held a monopoly on the flare activity, producing all six of the M-class flares, the largest being an M2.7 flare at 12/1143 UTC. The region continued to grow in size, spot count, and magnetic complexity. Regions 4058 (N13W65, Dao/beta), 4060 (N09E34, Dso/beta), and 4061 (N17W04, Dso/beta) all exhibited growth during the period, but all remained mostly inactive. The remaining numbered active regions were mostly unchanged. From approximately 12/1107-1117 UTC, dimming was observed in GOES-19 SUVI 195 imagery near N31W05. This is believed to be associated with an approximately six degree long DSF as reported by a USAF solar observatory. The corresponding CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 12/1202 UTC, but had a northerly trajectory. Initial analysis indicated a miss to the north of Earth, with no impacts expected at this time. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity has a high likelihood of seeing M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares, with a slight chance for isolate R3 (Strong) events, on 13-15 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential from Region 4055.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit was at high levels, reaching 3,905pfu at 12/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast

The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 15 Apr. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could reach S1 (Minor) levels due to the flare potential of Region 4955.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters remained enhanced as influence from the negative polarity CH HSS continued. Total magnetic field strength was between 6-10 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative, but did fluctuate between -9 and +5 nT. Solar wind speeds were predominantly between 400-500 km/s through 12/2100 UTC when they began to push over the 500 km/s mark. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast

The solar wind environment is expected to continue under a negative polarity CH HSS regime through 13-14 Apr. CH effects should begin to taper off by late on 15 Apr.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to continuing CH HSS effects.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, on 13 Apr due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue into 14 Apr, with a slight chance for isolated G1 (Minor) periods, as CH effects wane. Conditions are then expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Apr as the CH HSS moves from its geoeffective location.