Viendo archivo del martes, 15 abril 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Apr 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 105 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Apr 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (16 Apr,
17 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day three (18 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 15/2040Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 15/1822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-20 nT at 15/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2379 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (16 Apr), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (18 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Apr, 17 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Apr a 18 Apr
| Clase M | 80% | 75% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Apr 153 Previsto 16 Apr-18 Apr 160/160/155 Media de 90 Días 15 Apr 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/ NA Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 030/054-022/030-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Apr a 18 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 65% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 04/04/2026 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| abril 2026 | 133.3 +47.4 |
| Last 30 days | 96.9 +35.1 |
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