Vaata esmaspäev, 4 mai 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 May 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF number 124 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 MAY 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AT 03/2129Z AN M1/1B TENFLARE (810 FLUX UNITS, 8 MINUTES DURATION)
ACCOMPANIED
BY A MAJOR TYPE IV SWEEP, WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1B FLARE IN REGION
8210 (S17W50) AND A SIMULTANEOUS SUBFAINT FLARE IN REGION 8214
(N27E18). SYMPATHETIC FLARING HAS BEEN A CHARACTERISTIC OF THESE TWO
WIDELY SEPARATED REGIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. REGION 8210 HAS
FRAGMENTED AND SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DECAY, BUT REGION 8214 IS STILL
GROWING IN WHITE LIGHT ALTHOUGH IT HAS NOT DEVELOPED THE MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGETIC EVENTS. AN ACTIVE
PROMINENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WAS OBSERVED, BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE BASED ON THE COMBINED FLARE POTENTIAL IN REGIONS 8210 AND
8214. THE PROBABILITY OF X-CLASS ACTIVITY HAS LESSENED WITH THE
RECENT SIMPLIFICATION OF REGION 8210, BUT ADDITIONAL GROWTH IN
REGION 8214 COULD BE A PRECURSOR TO NEW MAJOR EVENTS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ASSUMED TO BE RELATED TO
COMPLEX SOLAR WIND STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF ENERGETIC
SOLAR EVENTS BEGINNING ON 29 APRIL, AND ESPECIALLY AN X1 X-RAY EVENT
THAT REACHED MAXIMUM 02/1342 UT. A SHOCK PASSED THE ACE SPACECRAFT
AT APPROXIMATELY 04/0229 UT THAT WAS OBSERVED AT EARTH APPROXIMATELY
30 MINUTES LATER. THEREAFTER, A TWO-HOUR PERIOD OF VERY STRONG
(ABOUT 40 NT) SOUTHWARD SOLAR WIND MAGNETIC FIELD WAS OBSERVED,
RESULTING IN K INDICES OF 8 IN BOULDER BETWEEN 03-09 UT AND REPORTS
OF AURORAL SIGHTINGS IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. THE ENERGETIC
PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 02/1405 ENDED 04/0310 UT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS AT STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WHILE IT IS CLEAR THAT THE LEADING PORTION OF THE CORONAL
MASS EJECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1 FLARE HAS ARRIVED, IT IS NOT
CERTAIN WHETHER THE CORE OF THE EJECTION WILL YET ARRIVE. THEREFORE,
STORM LEVEL WARNINGS ARE ADVISED THROUGH 5 MAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO END BY 7 MAY UNLESS NEW SOLAR EVENTS OCCUR.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 MAYkuni 07 MAY
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 MAY 121 Prognoositud 05 MAY-07 MAY 135/140/145 90 päeva keskmine 04 MAY 105
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY 037/057 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY 086/100 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY 050/060-025/045-010/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 MAY kuni 07 MAY
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 60% | 20% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 30% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 65% | 20% | 05% |
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