Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2025 Apr 18 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.6 at 17/1422 UTC from Region 4064 (N11E60, Dai/beta). Slight growth was observed in Region 4064. Slight growth and separation was observed in the larger leading spots of Region 4062 (S03E38, Dki/beta-gamma). The trailing spots E of Region 4062 were determined to be a separate spot group and was numbered Region 4066 (S05E49, Cai/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Ennustus

Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 18-20 Apr.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Ennustus

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to rebound following the passing of the CME. Moderate to high levels are likely on 18-20 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CME influence. Total field decreased from 16 nT to near 8 nT. The Bz component was mostly positive between +13/-1 nT. Solar wind speed decreased from a maximum of 523 km/s to near 440 km/s. Phi angle became mostly negative after 17/1640 UTC.

Ennustus

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be mildly elevated on 18 Apr as waning CME effects transition into a negative polarity CH HSS. HSS effects are expected to persist into 19 Apr and diminish by 20 Apr.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active under waning CME effects.

Ennustus

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 18 Apr as CME effects diminish with a likely transition into a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 19-20 Apr.