Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2024 Nov 14 1230 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.7 flare at 13/1708 UTC from Region 3889 (S10W22, Fki/beta-gamma-delta). Region 3889 had slight growth and consolidation within its leading and intermediate spots. The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. New Region 3894 (N23E54, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period. A narrow CME associated with the M1.7 flare was observed in SOHO imagery beginning at 13/1712 UTC and model runs suggest a weak impact is possible on 17 Nov.

Ennustus

M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) on 14-16 Nov.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Ennustus

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 14-16 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 14 Nov.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced to begin the period, with total field between 5-9 nT and variable Bz. At approximately 14/0340 UTC, further enhancement was observed as total field increased to 14 nT, while Bz has been steady around -8 nT since approximately 14/0900 UTC. Solar wind speed also increased from near 320 km/s to 425 km/s indicating the influence of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS. The Phi angle was positive.

Ennustus

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 14-16 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Ennustus

Quiet to active levels are expected on 14-15 Nov with CH HSS onset. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Nov as HSS conditions persist.