Vaata reede, 24 november 2000 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Nov 24 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 329 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Nov 2000 : : : : : : :CORRECTION: : : : : : : :

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z

Solar activity is now at high levels. Magnetograms revealed developing complexity late last period in Region 9236 (N22W07) and a series of significant events followed. The first was an M1/1n at 23/2328Z with associated Type II sweep (1025km/s) and CME. At 24/0502Z, an X2/3b flare erupted with strong centimetric radio bursts including a Tenflare of 2200sfu. This event was also accompanied by a Type II sweep (1000km/s), a proton event, and a halo CME. The third significant event from this region was an X2/2b that occurred at 24/1513Z. This flare was also accompanied by large centimetric radio bursts, a Type II sweep (1200km/s), proton event, and a halo CME. This region, at over 500 millionths of sunspot areal coverage, is magnetically complex and still developing. Region 9231 (S24W74) was mostly stable this period, producing only an isolated low C-class flare. New region 9242 (N22E68) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9236 continues to develop and is very capable of continued M-class and X-class events. Region 8231's complexity will likely result in occasional C-class events with an isolated chance of a small M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions observed late in the period. Solar wind data indicates we've transitioned to a high speed stream over the past eighteen hours with current solar wind speed ranging 500 to 550km/s. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 24/1520Z and is currently in progress. A maximum of 84 pfu was reached at 24/1905Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 23/1720Z, with a maximum of 1.1pfu observed at 24/1810Z. The initial proton enhancement began following the X2/3b flare at 0502Z. A second impulse of protons was evident following the X2/2b at 1513Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one due to high speed coronal hole flow. The first of a series of CME 's are expected to impact the field early on day two. As many as four individual CME's occurring over the past forty hours appeared earthbound. Minor to major storming is likely on days two and three. Another proton event is possible should Region 9236 produce an additional major flare.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Novkuni 27 Nov
Klass M70%70%70%
Klass X40%40%40%
Prooton99%80%50%
PCAFred
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       24 Nov 197
  Prognoositud   25 Nov-27 Nov  200/200/195
  90 päeva keskmine        24 Nov 174
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Nov  004/007
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  008/008
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/020-060/070-050/060
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Nov kuni 27 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%20%20%
Väike torm25%40%40%
Suur-tõsine torm10%40%40%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%20%20%
Väike torm30%30%30%
Suur-tõsine torm15%50%50%

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