Vaata neljapäev, 1 november 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Nov 01 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 305 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Nov 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events
observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf
at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687
produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent
brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf)
came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22)
continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and
magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity
during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as
flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated,
however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the
X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687
and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to
be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing
event during the next three days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's
shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned
southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to
-12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to
mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC.
At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was
weakly northwards.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Novkuni 04 Nov
| Klass M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 Nov 236 Prognoositud 02 Nov-04 Nov 225/225/230 90 päeva keskmine 01 Nov 204
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 Nov 025/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 012/012-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Nov kuni 04 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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