Vaata teisipäev, 28 oktoober 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 301 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Oct 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z

Solar activity continues at high levels. Region 486 (S17E04) produced one of the largest flares of this solar cycle, an X17/4B proton flare peaking at 28/1110Z. This flare had intense radio bursts including a 245 MhZ burst near 500,000 sfu and a Tenflare of 13,000 pfu. A very fast (near 2000 km/s), earthward directed full halo CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Region 486, a beta-gamma-delta group with over 2100 millionths of white light areal coverage, is now one of the largest and most complex active regions of solar cycle 23. Region 484 (N03W68) maintains considerable size and complexity as it approaches the west limb. It produced occasional C-class activity and a low M-class flare at 28/1613Z. Region 488 (N08W04) continues its rapid growth and now exceeds 800 millionths of coverage in a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Frequent C-class flare activity was observed in this region throughout the period. New region 493 (N09E05) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue at high levels. Region 486 in particular, has potential to produce further major flare activity. An isolated major flare is also possible from Regions 484 and 488.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A CME was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft at around 0130Z. Solar wind speed rose to near 800 km/s, but Bz stayed northward, thwarting a significant geomagnetic response. The X17 flare that occurred at 28/1110Z produced proton events at greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV which remain in progress at this time. The greater than 100 MeV event began at 28/1145Z with a maximum so far of 176 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 28/1215Z with a maximum so far of 6020 pfu. A polar cap absorption began at 28/1237Z and remains in progress.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to potentially severe storming in the next 24 to 48 hours. Today's X17 flare produced a large and fast halo CME that will likely impact the Earth's magnetic field by midday on day one. Past events of this magnitude have almost always produced severe storming. The storm is expected to continue through at least the first half of day two. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on day three. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by day two. The greater than 10 MeV proton event will likely persist through day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Octkuni 31 Oct
Klass M90%90%90%
Klass X50%50%50%
Prooton99%99%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       28 Oct 274
  Prognoositud   29 Oct-31 Oct  270/260/250
  90 päeva keskmine        28 Oct 124
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Oct  013/015
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  015/018
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  080/100-100/120-015/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Oct kuni 31 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%50%
Väike torm25%25%15%
Suur-tõsine torm60%60%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne10%10%50%
Väike torm20%20%25%
Suur-tõsine torm70%70%10%

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