Vaata reede, 9 jaanuar 2004 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 009 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Jan 2004

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the last 24 hours. Region 537 (N05E37) produced back-to-back M-class flares, an M1 at 0122 UTC followed immediately by an M3 at 0144 UTC. The x-ray events were associated with a narrow CME erupting off the southeast solar limb. Region 537 continues to have a delta configuration and is growing slowly, The spots appeared to be rotating slightly in a counter-clockwise direction. Region 536 (S12W28) is still the largest group on the disk and is undergoing a net loss of total spot area. However, there is some opposite polarity flux emerging just to the east of the region, and the spot group did produce occasional small flares throughout the day.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for major flare activity from Region 536 and from Region 537.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. An initially unsettled geomagnetic field became more disturbed after 0600 UTC, with one minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC, followed by unsettled to active conditions for the rest of the day. The increase was likely due to an observed change in the character of the solar wind around 0500 UTC. ACE solar wind data showed a slow rise in velocity, temperature, and density, as well as an increase in the total magnetic field intensity for about 4.5 hours accompanied by moderately southward Bz. The spiral angle also went through a reversal from away to towards just after 0600 Z and back from towards to away around 1000Z. This may be indicative of passage through an interplanetary current sheet. After 1000Z, velocity and speed continued to rise along with temperature, possibly suggestive of the onset of a co-rotating interaction region. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods over the next three days. The main driver for this enhanced activity is expected to be the continued presence of high speed solar wind originating from a solar coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Jankuni 12 Jan
Klass M75%75%75%
Klass X15%15%15%
Prooton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       09 Jan 118
  Prognoositud   10 Jan-12 Jan  120/125/125
  90 päeva keskmine        09 Jan 137
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Jan  004/009
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  020/025
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  015/015-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Jan kuni 12 Jan
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%35%
Väike torm20%20%20%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%25%
Väike torm35%35%35%
Suur-tõsine torm15%15%15%

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