Vaata esmaspäev, 19 juuli 2004 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2004 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 201 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Jul 2004

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 649 (S10W13) was limited to C-class flare activity today. The largest was a C4/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0533Z. This region is in decay and much deterioration has been observed in the delta structure in the dominant trailing spot. A second delta spot is evident just east of the dominate lead spot which has changed little since yesterday. The spot area has decreased 140 millionths in white light observations. Region 652 (N05E45) was also limited to low level C-class flare activity although SXI x-ray imagery indicates a near continuous surging in the northern quadrant of region continually bleeding off energy and possibly suppressing major flare activity. The consensus of white light area coverage for this region is currently observed at over 1500 millionths with a well defined intermediate delta spot. Region 653 (S14E45) has shown continued growth during the past 24 hours although it has been fairly quiescent throughout the period. An eruptive prominence occurred at 19/0910Z on the west solar limb at S12 which produced a weak structured CME that does not appear to be Earth directed. A second CME was seen shortly afterward on the northwest solar limb that is believed to be back sided. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 649 and 652 both remain capable of producing isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels. An active period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 19/0300 and 0600Z in conjunction with sustained southward Bz field values. A subsequent active period was observed between 19/1500 and 1800Z which was in response to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active levels are possible with the potential of transient activity on 20 and 21 July due to the recent major flares from Region 649.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Julkuni 22 Jul
Klass M65%65%65%
Klass X30%30%30%
Prooton15%15%15%
PCAFGreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       19 Jul 170
  Prognoositud   20 Jul-22 Jul  170/165/165
  90 päeva keskmine        19 Jul 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Jul  006/009
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 19 Jul  006/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Jul kuni 22 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%10%
Väike torm10%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%15%
Väike torm10%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%

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