Vaata teisipäev, 7 juuni 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Jun 07 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 158 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Jun 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There
were two C-class events. The first was a C3/Sf from Region 772
(S18W44) at 1342 UTC, and the second was a C2.5 from Region 776
(S06E47) at 1914 UTC. Neither of these regions has shown dramatic
changes during the past 24 hours. However, Region 776 continues to
be the largest group on the disk. There was some new flux emergence
and growth in Region 775 (N10E35), but the group didn't produce any
flares. A quiescent filament erupted from the northeast part of the
disk at about 0900 UTC and was associated with a CME observed by
LASCO. The CME is centered over the northeast limb and is about 75
degrees wide: it does not appear to have any earthward directed
component.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event. Regions
772 and 776 are the most likely sources for activity although Region
775 might also contribute if the current growth trend continues.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz
went through an interval between 06/1800-07/0400 UTC with weakly but
persistently negative values ranging from 0 nT to -7 nT. This
resulted in unsettled to active levels between 06/2100-07/0300 UTC
followed by a minor storm interval from 0300-0600 UTC and another
active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been at quiet to
unsettled levels since 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods for the first day (08 June). Conditions should be
unsettled for the second day (09 June) and are expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled for the third day (10 June).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Junkuni 10 Jun
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Jun 109 Prognoositud 08 Jun-10 Jun 110/110/105 90 päeva keskmine 07 Jun 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Jun 007/013 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Jun 015/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 010/015-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Jun kuni 10 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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