Vaata reede, 27 mai 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 May 28 0225 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF number 147 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 May 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 1226 (S18E74)
produced a B-class event and four C-class events since being
numbered today. The largest was a C5 observed at 27/1643Z. This
region began with a B1 event at 26/1654Z as it approached the
southeast limb yesterday. It is currently an H-type group, however,
the region is still rotating onto the disk and more white light area
are evident in the SDO/HMI imagery just visible on the limb. Region
1223 (S16W00) produced the only other event during the period, a B4
at 27/0953Z. This region is a Dso group with a beta magnetic
classification and grew slightly in sunspot count. Two more regions
were numbered today as Regions 1224 (N21W15) and 1225 (N18E55).
Region 1224 is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and
1225 is another H-type group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for C-class events, and a slight chance for an M-class
event, as regions on the disk continue to evolve.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the
ACE spacecraft suggest the earth is under the continued influence of
the co-rotating interaction region in advance of the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Solar winds have slowly increased
from around 390 to 500 km/s. The IMF Bt averaged around 8 nT with
the Bz mostly southward (-8 nT) through the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with occasional active
periods, including isolated minor storm conditions at high-latitudes
for day one (28 May). This is expected due to effects from the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). In addition
there are possible effects from the disappearing filament observed
on 25 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active
levels, are expected for days two and three (29-30 May) with
continued CH HSS effects.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Maykuni 30 May
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 May 090 Prognoositud 28 May-30 May 090/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 27 May 108
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 May 004/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 27 May 010/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 015/018-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 May kuni 30 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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