SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL DUE TO AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M2 AT 03/1719Z. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THIS EVENT WAS REGION 8124 LOCATED ONE DAY BEHIND THE WEST LIMB AT S22. TWO LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OCCURRED. THE FIRST WAS COINCIDENT WITH A LONG DURATION (02/2335-03/0630Z) B6 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT. THE CME WAS NEARLY A COMPLETE HALO. THE SOURCE OF THIS CME WAS THE SLOW DISSOLUTION OF FILAMENT MATERIAL LOCATED NEAR N47W03. A POST-ERUPTION ARCADE BECAME VISIBLE DOWN TO NEAR REGION 8126 (N21W61). THE SECOND CME OCCURRED NEAR 03/1000Z FROM HIGH LATITUDES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS EVENT WAS VERY BRIGHT IN CORONAGRAPH IMAGERY AND LIKELY RELATED TO THE ERUPTION OF LARGE POLAR CROWN FILAMENTS NEAR THE NORTHWEST LIMB. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS MATERIAL WAS HIGHLY INCLINED TO THE ECLIPTIC.

SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME VERY LOW TO LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS REGION 8124 MOVES SEVERAL DAYS BEHIND THE WEST LIMB.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR 04-05 JAN. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE LATTER HALF OF 06 JAN AND FOR 07 JAN IN RESPONSE TO THE HALO EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE. ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DISTURBANCE. THE SECOND CORONAL MASS EJECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.

  Наблюдаемый       03 JAN 101
  Прогнозируемый   04 JAN-06 JAN  092/088/086
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        03 JAN 095

OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JAN  006/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JAN-06 JAN  005/005-005/005-010/010