SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8210 (S16E19) PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M6/3B FLARE AT 29/1637Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS AND A STRONG TYPE IV SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST THAT REMAINED IN PROGRESS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A MODERATE SIZE FILAMENT IN THE REGION FADED WITH THE FLARE AND A LARGE HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS BY SOHO/LASCO SCIENTISTS, THIS HALO APPEARED TO PROPAGATE MORE DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH THAN THE HALO OBSERVED ON 27 APR. PRIOR TO THIS FLARE, REGION 8210 HAD PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS. THE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN REGION 8210 FADED DURING THE PERIOD BUT SOME MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED. WHITE LIGHT AREA REMAINED CONSTANT IN THIS SMALL REGION. A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR N27E60 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8214.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 8210 APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M AND SMALL X-CLASS EVENTS. OLD REGION 8194 IS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LIMB DURING THE PERIOD, BUT AT THIS EARLY TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A POTENT FLARE PRODUCING REGION.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. AT PRESS TIME, THE EXPECTED SHOCK FROM THE X1/HALO CME OF 27 APR HAD NOT ARRIVED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMINANTLY HIGH.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BECOME DISTURBED ON 30 APR IN RESPONSE TO THE HALO CME OBSERVED ON 27 APR. THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD IMPACT THE EARTH ON 01-02 MAY. THUS, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS INTERVAL.

  Наблюдаемый       29 APR 101
  Прогнозируемый   30 APR-02 MAY  101/104/108
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        29 APR 104

OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 APR  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 APR  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 APR-02 MAY  020/020-020/020-018/018