SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY CAME FROM REGION 8319 (N18W41) WHICH PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS FLARES: AN M1/1N AT 0541Z AND AN M1/1N AT 0937Z. THE REGION GREW RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, MORE THAN DOUBLING IN SIZE, AND PRODUCED VERY FREQUENT SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. THE SUNSPOT DISTRIBUTION APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING FROM AN INTERMEDIATE TO COMPACT CONFIGURATION. A THIRD M-CLASS EVENT (M1/SN WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP) WAS PRODUCED BY 8307 (N30W65) AT 1805Z. ALL THREE OF TODAY'S M-CLASS FLARES WERE SHORT-LIVED, IMPULSIVE EVENTS. REGION 8323 (S21E54) HAS ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A LARGE (700-800 MILLIONTHS), COMPACT SUNSPOT GROUP. MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIXING OF MAGNETIC POLARITY INCLUDING A PROBABLE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE REGION.THE GROUP PRODUCED A NUMBER OF SUBFLARE EVENTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY MODERATE, BUT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FROM ANY ONE OF REGIONS 8307, 8319, AND 8323.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. HIGH SPEED (500-580 KM/S), LOW DENSITY (1-3 P/CC) SOLAR WIND PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A FLUCTUATING, BUT MOSTLY NEGATIVE BZ INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT (RANGING FROM +2 TO -5 NT). THE GREATER THEN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

  Наблюдаемый       30 AUG 163
  Прогнозируемый   31 AUG-02 SEP  170/170/165
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        30 AUG 119

OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG  011/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  015/015-015/015-010/015