SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8898 (S14E35) PRODUCED NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S FLARES INCLUDING THE LARGEST: A C9/SF AT 1530Z. THE REGION HAS GROWN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, PRODUCED A TOTAL OF 8 C-CLASS FLARES, AND IS NOW A 140 MILLIONTHS D-TYPE REGION. REGION 8891 (S16W42) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK, BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER ONE C-CLASS EVENT: A C5/SF AT 0902Z. 8891 APPEARS TO BE UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8900 (S16E02) HAS ALSO SHOWN GROWTH, BUT WAS MUCH LESS FLARE PRODUCTIVE THAN 8898: THE REGION IS NOW A 230 MILLIONTHS D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. AN 8 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N24W40 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 04/2052-2130Z. THE EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSEQUENT PARALLEL RIBBONS AND A WEAK LONG-DURATION EVENT IN THE GOES X-RAYS. HOWEVER, THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS SIGNATURE IN CORONAGRAPH DATA OF AN ASSOCIATED CME. IN ADDITION A 15 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S10W08 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0615-0725Z. IN THIS CASE THERE WERE NO OTHER OBVIOUS ERUPTIVE SIGNATURES, SUGGESTING THAT THE FILAMENT FADED RATHER THAN ERUPTED. NEW REGION 8901 (S13E71) EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY ARE REGIONS 8898 (ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT GROWTH CONTINUES) AND 8891 (GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MAGNETIC FIELDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN E-W PORTION OF THE POLARITY INVERSION LINE). ALTHOUGH REGION 8882 (S16W90+) IS BEYOND WEST LIMB, IT COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO X-RAY LEVELS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

  Наблюдаемый       05 MAR 220
  Прогнозируемый   06 MAR-08 MAR  225/225/225
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        05 MAR 171

OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAR  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAR  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAR-08 MAR  010/012-007/010-007/008