Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 22 июня 2003
Отчет о солнечной активности
Любая солнечная вспышка, упомянутая в этом расчете, имеет масштабирующий коэффициент, применяемый Центром прогнозирования космической погоды (SWPC). Из-за него солнечные вспышки здесь на 42% слабее, чем в научных данных. Из наших архивов этот коэффициент был удален, чтобы показать реальные величины вспышек.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Подготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.comСовместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 173 на уровне 2200Z 22 Jun 2003
IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 21 - 2100Z до 22 - 2100Z
Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare
this period - a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This
region has shown little change this period and still contains some
weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still
maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as
it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest
region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating
around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class
flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 21 - 2100Z до 22 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed
coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal
hole high speed flow.
III. Вероятность события от 23 - Jun до 25 - Jun
M-класс | 25% | 25% | 25% |
X-класс | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Протон | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 22 Jun 110
Прогнозируемый 23 Jun-25 Jun 110/115/115
среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 22 Jun 126
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 21 Jun 016/023
По оценкам Afr/Ap 22 Jun 015/015
Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 23 - Jun до 25 - Jun
A. Средние широты |
Активно | 35% | 30% | 30% |
Слабый шторм | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Большой шторм | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Высокие широты |
Активно | 40% | 35% | 35% |
Слабый шторм | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Большой шторм | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Comments
K-Indices
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
Все время в UTC
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