Solar activity was high. At 12/1649Z, a long-duration X1/2b flare was observed from Region 1520 (S16W09). The event was visible in GONG H-alpha imagery as a bright ribbon flare that erupted along the region?s long E/W oriented inversion line. Associated with this event were Type II (1268 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions along with an 800 sfu Tenflare. Limited satellite imagery indicated a CME was associated with this event. STEREO Behind COR2 imagery observed a CME lifting off the west limb, first visible at 12/1710Z. Further analysis of this CME is ongoing. During the past 24 hours, Region 1520 grew in both area and spot count and maintained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1521 (S21W21) also grew in area and spot count and remained a beta-gamma magnetic classification. New Regions 1522 (N13W21) and 1523 (S27E31) emerged on the disk as simple bi-polar spot groups.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days (13 - 15 July).

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with isolated high latitude major storm intervals from 11/0600 - 1200Z. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities decreased steadily through the period from 500 km/s to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu event threshold at 12/1835Z. At the time of this report, flux levels were at 35 pfu and rising. The greater than 100 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced, but below event threshold levels of 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 July). Unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm intervals, are expected on days two and three (14 - 15 July) as effects from the 12 July CME are expected to become geoeffective.

  Наблюдаемый       12 Jul 165
  Прогнозируемый   13 Jul-15 Jul  165/165/165
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        12 Jul 127

  Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 11 Jul  010/012
  По оценкам     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  009/011
  Прогнозируемый    Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  006/008-015/018-013/015