Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 30 сентября 2012
Отчет о солнечной активности
Любая солнечная вспышка, упомянутая в этом расчете, имеет масштабирующий коэффициент, применяемый Центром прогнозирования космической погоды (SWPC). Из-за него солнечные вспышки здесь на 42% слабее, чем в научных данных. Из наших архивов этот коэффициент был удален, чтобы показать реальные величины вспышек.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2012 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Подготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.comСовместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 274 на уровне 2200Z 30 Sep 2012
IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 29 - 2100Z до 30 - 2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with Region 1583 (N12W88) producing an isolated M1 solar
x-ray event at 0433Z. Region 1583 had grown rapidly in the past 24
hours, however it is only hours away from rotating off the solar
disk and out of view. The remaining active regions on the disk
remained stable, producing a few low level C-class events. New
Region 1584 (S23E28) was numbered early in the period, and at the
time of this report, had only produced one low level C-class event.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for continued M-class activity for
the next two days (01 - 02 October). A return to low levels is
expected on day three (03 October), as the active region cluster,
located in the northwest quadrant, rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 29 - 2100Z до 30 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours. The enhanced activity was due to the arrival of a CME from
27 September. At around 1100Z, measurements from the ACE spacecraft,
indicated the arrival of this CME. At 1138Z, a sudden impulse of 15
nT was measured by the Boulder magnetometer, as the CME reached
Earth. Solar wind velocities increased very little with this
initial phase of the CME, increasing from around 280 - 320 km/s. The
total IMF increased as the CME arrived, with sustained periods of
negative Bz. However, with the lower than expected solar wind
speeds, very little geomagnetic effects have been observed.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with minor storm periods
possible on day one (01 October), as effects of todays CME
continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (02
October) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (03 October).
III. Вероятность события от 01 - Oct до 03 - Oct
M-класс | 10% | 10% | 01% |
X-класс | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Протон | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 30 Sep 136
Прогнозируемый 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/130/125
среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 30 Sep 124
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/004
По оценкам Afr/Ap 30 Sep 009/011
Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 011/015-007/008-004/005
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 01 - Oct до 03 - Oct
A. Средние широты |
Активно | 35% | 10% | 05% |
Слабый шторм | 15% | 05% | 01% |
Большой шторм | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Высокие широты |
Активно | 10% | 15% | 15% |
Слабый шторм | 25% | 20% | 15% |
Большой шторм | 50% | 20% | 10% |
Все время в UTC
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