Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 flare observed at 16/1539Z from the northeast limb. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (511 km/s). A long duration C1 flare from Region 1613 (S23W05) occurred at 16/0751Z with an associated 24 degree filament eruption centered near S39E22 at 16/0720Z. Another filament eruption was observed from the East limb seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 16/0648 UTC. Analysis of SOHO/LASCO C2 suggested these eruptions would not be geoeffective. Yesterdays general trend of decreasing size and complexity continued among all active regions, leaving Region 1610 (S22W63) as the only beta-gamma type group on the visible disk. However, flux emergence was observed in other portions of the disk. New Region 1617 (S18W18) was numbered today, and emerging flux was noted near N12E35 on SDO/HMI magnetogram loops and later reported by Holloman Solar Observatory There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an isolated moderate event on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 16/1112Z, but generally remained in the low to mid 400 km/s range under the waning influence of a weak negative coronal hole high speed stream. Bz was generally -4nT or greater through the period. No significant discontinuities were observed in the measured variables.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov). The field is expected to be occasionally unsettled over the next three days as another coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

  Наблюдаемый       16 Nov 138
  Прогнозируемый   17 Nov-19 Nov 141/145/145
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        16 Nov 120

  Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/003
  По оценкам     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/005
  Прогнозируемый    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  008/008-007/008-006/005