Viewing archive of Monday, 15 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 570
(S14W46) continues in a slow decay phase, exhibiting only occasional
minor plage fluctuations. A 10 degree filament eruption occurred at
15/0830Z from near N22W28. An associate weak CME was observed on
LASCO imagery, but it is not expected to be geoeffective. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare in
Region 570.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated
minor storm period between 15/0000 - 0300Z. Solar wind speed is
still slightly elevated, but is in slow decline. The IMF Bz was
predominantly southward near -5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 101 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 100/105/115 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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