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Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 January 2005

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class and B-class flares occurred in Region 715 (N05E08). Region 715, which produced an X1 flare on 01 January, continues in a decay phase. Region 717 (N08W86) is growing in size as it approaches the west limb, but so far has produced only B-class activity. No other significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 715. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 717 as it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. High speed coronal hole flow, possibly combined with weak transient flow from the late December CME activity, is responsible for this disturbance. Solar wind speed increased to over 800 km/s by the middle of the period and ranged from 700 - 850 km/s for the remainder of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storming. The high speed coronal hole stream in progress now is expected to persist through 03 January. A CME associated with the X1 flare early on 01 Jan is expected to impact the geomagnetic field on 03 January. As a result, minor to major storm periods are possible on 03 and 04 January. Storming should subside by 05 January. Expect quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on the 5th.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M30%25%20%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 100
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  020/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%35%25%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Nuuk
Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Winnipeg, MB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (680.5 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-53nT)

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