Viewing archive of Monday, 5 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 05 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare and
Type IV radio sweep occurred at 05/1041Z. A large and fast CME (2000
km/s) observed off the southeast limb, was also associated with this
event. The likely source of this flare was old active Region 798
(S09, L=217), which is due to rotate onto the visible disk on 07
Sep. Old Region 798 produced a proton flare during the latter stages
of its last transit across the visible disk (22-24 Aug), and was
responsible for a severe geomagnetic storm. Region 805 (S11W44), the
only region with sunspots on the visible disk, was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
on 06 Sep, but is expected to increase to at least moderate levels
on 07 and 08 Sep as old active Region 798 rotates onto the visible
disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind was elevated,
but declined from 650 km/s to near 450 km/s by the end the period.
The greater the 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The
large CME observed off the southeast limb this period is not
expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 075 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 080/090/100 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 018/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTFairbanks, AK
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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