Viewing archive of Monday, 5 May 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 05 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 993 (S31E14)
remains a simple bipolar sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between
1500-1800Z. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE
satellite, remain elevated at about 625 km/s. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods on days 1 and 2 (06 and 07 May) due to the
high speed stream. By day 3 (08 May), geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet as the high speed stream abates.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May ??? Predicted 06 May-08 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 05 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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