Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 July 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 31 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless. No flares occurred in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet unsettled on day one (1 Aug). Quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (2-3 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jul 066
  Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        31 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (651.1 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-58nT)

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