Viewing archive of Friday, 6 February 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 06 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (7-9 February).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 070
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active01%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 03:00 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Reykjavik
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (689.6 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-74nT)

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