Viewing archive of Monday, 23 February 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 23 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. A continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is reflected in ACE solar wind measurements. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from around 420 km/s to a peak of 487 km/s with interplanetary Bz fluctuations from +5 to -5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (24-26 February).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Feb 071
  Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        23 Feb 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Feb  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK

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