Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 November 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 10 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low for the past 24 hours. Region 1030 (N24W62) has decayed to an Axx-beta group with three spots. No flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three days (11-13 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the next three days (11-13 November).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 073
  Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  072/072/073
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (674.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-60nT)

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