Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 10 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. No flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The ACE spacecraft observed a continued decline in the solar wind speed, averaging 375 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (11 April). Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on day two and three (12-13 April). This activity is expected due to the 08 April full halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 075
  Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  005/005-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active01%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%25%20%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (695.7 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)

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