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Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 March 2015

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 07/2222Z from Region 2297 (S17E66). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 614 km/s at 08/0631Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0916Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1636 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Mar, 10 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 124
  Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  017/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  015/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm45%40%25%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (528.6 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.73nT), the direction is slightly South (-6.51nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-89nT)

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