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Second strongest storm, M6.6 CME analysis

We are still very much under the influence of the 21 June coronal mass ejection that arrived yesterday evening. The NOAA SWPC reported that the severe G4 geomagnetic storming threshold was reached and the Wing Kp-index even went up to Kp9 which stands for extreme G5 geomagnetic storm conditions, but the G5 reported by the Wing-Kp is questionable. The disturbance storm time index (another way of classifying geomagnetic storms where a lower number means a stronger storm) reached -195nT (for now at least) which makes this the second strongest geomagnetic storm of this solar cycle. The 2015/03/17 geomagnetic storm remains the strongest storm of this solarcycle with a Dst of -221 nT.

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-62nT)

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Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March

Yesterday around 16 UTC an M1.2 solar flare took place around sunspot region 4028. The solar flare triggered a filament eruption which erupted from the center of the earth-facing solar disk.

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12:18 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 13:10 UTC


03:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 03:35 UTC

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03:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) Threshold Reached: 02:59 UTC

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01:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 01:36 UTC

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Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/02/23X2.0
Last M-flare2025/03/21M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/21Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2025154.6 +17.6
March 2025140.3 -14.3
Last 30 days141.7 -9.5

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000X1.56
22024M4.3
32000M2.86
42002M2.37
52001M2.28
DstG
11990-104G1
21989-96G2
31958-85G2
41979-81G3
51973-57G2
*since 1994

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