Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 September 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (23 Sep, 24 Sep) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
707 km/s at 22/0715Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0250Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0601Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 782 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (23 Sep, 25 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (24 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 107 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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