Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 July 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 426 km/s at 25/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 944 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28
Jul, 29 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 074 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 015/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 010/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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