Viewing archive of Monday, 3 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 03 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 03 Oct 2016 until 05 Oct 2016
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
03 Oct 2016082019
04 Oct 2016084017
05 Oct 2016087017

Bulletin

With only one visible AR on the disk (NOAA AR 2598, beta magnetic field configuration) solar activity has been very low, no C-class flares in past 24 h. There is a region turning into view from the east limb, C-class flares are possible.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels both at planetary and local levels (Kp and KDourbes = 5) overnight. This was due to solar wind with velocities reaching 575 km/s with long lasting periods of negative Bz (reaching -7 nT). Solar wind speed is now at 475 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field intensities around 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled with possible isolated active periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 037, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux082
AK Chambon La Forêt030
AK Wingst022
Estimated Ap023
Estimated international sunspot number009 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (521 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.65nT), the direction is slightly South (-8.06nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

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