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Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 May 2017

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (12 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 11/0549Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/1319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 May 069
  Predicted   12 May-14 May 070/072/073
  90 Day Mean        11 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 May  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  006/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
The solar wind speed is currently high (703.2 km/sec.)
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.65nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-57nT)

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