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Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 February 2018

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1858Z from Region 2699 (S08E51). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (07 Feb) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 06/1518Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0942Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 077
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  006/005-008/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm15%20%25%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 03:00 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Reykjavik
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (689.6 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-74nT)

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