Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 February 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (28 Feb) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 27/1531Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 27/1033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/1101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3341 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 068 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 068/068/070 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 010/014-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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