Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 October 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2019 Oct 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Oct 2019	067	006
18 Oct 2019	067	007
19 Oct 2019	067	017

Bulletin

The Sun is spotless and did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 1%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by ACE varied between about 370 and 460 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended periods. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected from the second half of October 19 onwards, with the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the equator.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 17 and 18 and the first half of October 19. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible in the second half of October 19, due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the equator.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Oct 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	066
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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