Viewing archive of Friday, 1 May 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 01/0727Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/0945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (02 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 May 070
  Predicted   02 May-04 May 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        01 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 May  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%25%25%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (678.5 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-57nT)

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