Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 368 km/s at 05/2350Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 06/0924Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1331 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 072 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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